2009 Mariners Outlook: Erik Bedard

Over the next few weeks I will be breaking down the Mariners roster as I try to forget the painful memories of the 2008 season. The Mariners should be improved, but it will take a magnificent turnaround to completely destroy the stench created from a year ago (a stench made worse by the Sonics debacle, the Seahawk's injury woes, and Washington's ineptitude during the 2008 Pac-10 football season. If you run into a Seattle sports fan on the street, give him a hug.) I will be going through and previewing some of the Mariners’ key players for 2009 and giving you a little preview of what you might expect this year. First up is everyone's favorite Canadian, Erik Bedard!

Erik Bedard:

The Erik Bedard trade before the 2008 season was supposed to make the Mariners contenders by giving them two front line starting pitchers. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but I was opposed to this trade from the moment it happened. I didn’t want the Mariners give up such a good package of players for someone who no one else appeared to be bidding on and who could leave in free agency in a couple of years. I am also very high on Adam Jones, the CF prospect in the center of the Orioles’ package. He Seattle also gave up George Sherrill along with three minor league pitchers to get their hands on Bedard. Chris Tillman, one of the minor league pitchers that went to Baltimore in the deal, had a great year in the Orioles farm system and now looks like a possible future #2 or #3 starter. All of this negativity aside, there is one huge positive for the Mariners in all of this; Erik Bedard can pitch! No matter how you slice it, Bedard was good in 2006 and even better in 2007. Old-School fans with an appreciation for traditional statistics should have liked Bedard’s 2007 campaign. He went 13-5 on a Baltimore team that lost 93 game. He also posted a 3.16 ERA and a whopping 221 strikeouts. The nerds who play in their table-top simulation games in Mom’s basement were also impressed by Bedard’s 2007 campaign (BTW, I am pretty much a perfect fit in this category). The advanced stats showed that Bedard was worth an estimated 5.4 runs to the Orioles in 2007. This ranked him 6th in the league just behind names like Sabathia, Halladay, and Beckett. So what did all these good feelings lead to in 2008? A year that saw Bedard hampered by injuries and the Mariners out of the race in May. He was hurt much of the season so he only made 15 starts and pitched just 81 innings. If he can return to anything close to his 2006 or 2007 form however, it would ease much of my pain from the trade and 2008 season.

Bedard Projection:

Stephen’s Dream Scenario: 30 starts, 185 IP, 200 K, a K/BB over 3.5, and GB% in the high 40s…pretty much his 2007 campaign in Baltimore.

Worst Case Scenario: see 2008 only more injured and less effective. I just threw up.

Likely Scenario: ~25 starts, 140 IP, 150 K, and a K/BB ratio around 2.5. I want Adam Jones back.